Long-term interest rates for 10-year, 20-year, and 30-year U.S. Treasuries have increased due to debt problems and political dysfunction.
Posted by Bulwark Takes, Checked
- Sources
- 4 contradict4 support
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
Bulwark TakesAug 21, 2026
The sources support that U.S. long-term Treasury yields (10-, 20-, and 30-year) rose sharply in 2026, to multi-decade highs, and that deficits and debt are one contributing factor. They contradict the claim's implied primary causation by debt and political dysfunction: Yale, J.P.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… Because I don't think so. I do not think the market is pricing in any of the potential political instability that this stuff suggests. Well, to go back to our prior conversation, I think equity markets, stock markets, are not, but I think bond markets are. I think some of, I mean, it's really hard to disentangle what's happening, but some of the reason why I think rates have gone up, uh, particularly, like, long rates, uh, for no 20 year 10 year 20 year 30 year Treasuries, some of it has to do with the fact that we have debt problems and political dysfunction related to that, but I think it's also, like, political dysfunction writ large. That part of the reason why U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. Dollar, have been considered the safest of safe assets is that we are a grown-up country, right? …
Bulwark Takes · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. Yale Insights attributes the run-up in longer-term rates mostly to expected future short-term rates, reflecting Fed tightening expectations and AI-related investment, with only some widening in risk premiums.[2]
Contradicts. J.P. Morgan finds the largest driver of higher yields since the July FOMC meeting has been a rise in term premium, with fiscal deficit worries as one of several drivers; Russell Investments finds more than 70% of the 10-year increase reflects real rates and term premium, and that Treasury supply is not the main explanation.[3][4]
Contradicts. Yahoo Finance reports that some commentators attribute rising rates to the deficit and political dysfunction, but economists emphasize supply and demand for credit, with the main drivers being government and corporate borrowing demand rather than political dysfunction.[5]
Supports. Multiple sources report that long-term U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest levels in roughly two decades during 2026, including the 30-year yield near 5.36%.[1][6][7]
Supports. Stifel and CNBC describe federal debt and deficits, including the $40 trillion national debt and a $1.99 trillion deficit, as an increasing driver of higher long-term rates.[7][8]
Context. No source directly measures or quantifies political dysfunction as a cause of Treasury yield changes, so that element of the claim has no direct empirical support.[4][5]
Sources
8 sources: 1 fact-checker, 1 primary, 6 not rated
- 1Why bond yields are rising and why everyone should careapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: supports
- 2Why Are Bond Yields Soaring? - Yale Insightsinsights.som.yale.edu · primary source · cited for: contradicts
- 3Toto, I Don’t Think It’s the Fed Anymore | J.P. Morganjpmorgan.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 4What's really driving the rise in Treasury yields?russellinvestments.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
- 5Why Economists Forecast Mortgage And Bond Rates Will ...finance.yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
- 6Global bond selloff rolls onrte.ie · not rated · cited for: supports
- 7Long-term interest rates continue higher. The 30-year Treasury yield peaked recently around 5.36%, astifel.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 8The twin challenge of $2 trillion deficits and 5% Treasuryscnbc.com · not rated · cited for: supports
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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