Ken Paxton was down by almost 15 points in one poll.
Posted by The Michael Berry Show, Checked
- Sources
- 4 contradict4 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
The Michael Berry ShowSep 15, 2026
The claim's referent is clearly Paxton and the passage's "down by almost 15 points" refers to a poll he trailed in.
What was said
… About I don't have your respect or admiration? I also don't burn my sources or anything else that's way bigger than you, but just trust that I'm not going to go on national TV guaranteeing a Paxton win unless I know things that are not in evidence. At the time when he was down by almost 15 points in one poll, I'm not i'm not dumb. Also understand that I don't walk into the mechanic shop i mean, I do, but it's intended as a joke and walk over and look down where the oil is everywhere and the guys on it and go, Hey, maybe we'll check the flux capacitor, because he …
The Michael Berry Show · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. A Statesman article says polling since summer shows Paxton "steadily trailing Talarico by single digits," and a Fox News registered-voter poll it cites had Talarico ahead 53% to 45%, a 7-point gap.[1]
Contradicts. A CNN poll released October 29 had Talarico leading Paxton 49% to 43%, a 6-point margin, and other recent polls cited showed ties or leads of 1 to 5 points.[2][3][4]
Context. Several October polls (Fox, Emerson, Texas Public Opinion Research, Texas Southern University, Cook) show margins between a tie and about 5 points, with no source reporting a deficit near 15 points for Paxton.[3][5][6][7][8]
Sources
8 sources: 8 not rated
- 1Did Trump's convention hurt Paxton? The Senate hopeful says his numbers droppedstatesman.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 2CNN Poll: Dems Leading in Texas, Michigan Senate Racesyahoo.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 3New Texas Senate poll shows challenge for GOP in final daysrmb.reuters.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, context
- 4James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton—What Texas Polls Show One Week Before Midtermnewsweek.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 5Fox news poll shows Paxton, Talarico tied in Texas Senate raceusatoday.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 6Texas 2026 Poll: Paxton and Talarico Deadlocked in U.S. Senate Race; Abbott Leads Hinojosa by Four Points - Emerson Pollingemersoncollegepolling.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 7October Poll: In Texas General Election, Talarico Leads ...texaspublicopinionresearch.substack.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 8Talarico leads Paxton in new poll as early voting continues ...fox7austin.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
Related claims
- Ken Paxton went from trailing by 20 points in the polls to receiving significant campaign contributions.Mixed
- Ken Paxton won his election by 30 percentage points.True
- Ken Paxton stated that his polling numbers and the numbers of other Republicans dropped after the Trump-led GOP midterm convention in Dallas.True
- Tallarico is tied with Paxton in polling.True
- 28% of voters who consider themselves Republicans but not MAGA do not support Ken Paxton.True