Polygraph

The United States tracked retail market for electronic cigarettes and vape shops was 6 billion dollars in 2025.

Posted by The Joe Rogan Experience, Checked

Polygraph verdictMixed
Sources
2 contradict1 support2 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
45%
The Joe Rogan ExperienceNov 6, 2026
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149 claimsThe check →

The post's "US. Tracked retail, 6 billion in 2025" is roughly consistent with Circana tracked-channel data reported by Tobacco Insider ($6.52 billion for the 52 weeks ending April 20, 2025, a 9.8% decline), but that period is not calendar 2025 and the figure covers only tracked channels.

The guest relays this claim without endorsing it. It counts as passed on, not against the post.

What was said

… So it's a nicotine is a very big business. Yeah, but see, like, there's something uniquely addictive about wow. Well, e-cigarette vaping industry is estimated at 24 billion in 2026. This is global. Uhm, can we get it on the United States? Is that available? US. Tracked retail, 6 billion in 2025. US. Electronic cigarettes and vape shots, 8 billion in 2026. Fuck, that's crazy. That's so much money. Wow. This kratom opiate effect, why is it so different, then? …
The Joe Rogan Experience · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. Mordor Intelligence puts the U.S. e-cigarette market at $4.67 billion in 2025, and Vynz Research puts it at $8.4 billion in 2025; both are far from $6 billion, though Mordor's page is dated 2018 and Vynz is an unrated report.[2][3]

Supports. Tobacco Insider, citing Circana, reports U.S. multi-outlet and convenience-channel vape sales of $6.52 billion in the 52 weeks ending April 20, 2025, which is close to the claimed $6 billion.[4]

Context. Circana's broader total vape market was reported at $6.8 billion for 2024 by Reuters, and IBISWorld estimates $8.0 billion for the vape shop industry in 2024, so the figure depends on which channels and years are measured.[1][5]

Context. The claimed figure matches a tracked-retail measure only if the period is read loosely, since the Circana figure runs to April 2025 and excludes online sales, independent shops and specialty vape retailers.[1][4]

Sources

5 sources: 1 fact-checker, 4 not rated

  1. 1Illegal U.S. vape sales worth at least $2.4 billion in 2024, data showsreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  2. 2US E-cigarettes Market Size, Growth & Industry Report | 2025 - 2031mordorintelligence.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  3. 3US E-Cigarette Market Size & Share Growth Forecast ...vynzresearch.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  4. 4USA: Illegal Vapes - Tobacco Insidertobaccoinsider.com · not rated · cited for: supports, context
  5. 5Electronic Cigarette & Vape Shops in the US Industry Analysis ...ibisworld.com · not rated · cited for: context

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