Polygraph

Support for the GOP from rural voters is down 14 points.

Posted by The Fox News Rundown, Checked

Polygraph verdictCan’t tell
Sources
1 contradict7 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
40%
The Fox News RundownOct 23, 2026
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The 14-point figure comes from a single Fox News poll cited on air on 2026-10-20 (63% Trump 2024 vote share to 49% current GOP support), and the sources repeat it without independent confirmation.

A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… Also, this extremely interested in election in, from that same poll: Democrats, 69%; Republicans, 61%. So does that enthusiasm or interest advantage benefit Democrats, meaning they actually show up and vote? We also got more power rankings this week. Support of the GOP from rural voters down 14 points, and support from Latinos is down, I think, 12 points. Latinos, that was a bonus, right, in '24 for the GOP. Losing rural voters that much, I mean, that's sort of, in part, the GOP's bread and butter. …
The Fox News Rundown · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. The AP-KFF survey reports Trump's rural approval at 48%, down from 56% in an earlier survey. That is an 8-point drop in a different measure (presidential approval, not GOP support), so it does not establish the 14-point figure.[1]

Context. Coverage of the Fox News exchange reports the 14-point figure as 63% for Trump in 2024 versus 49% for the GOP now, comparing a presidential vote share with a current party-support measure.[2][3][4]

Context. The KFF/AP survey reports rural cost-of-living and approval findings but no GOP-support trend comparable to a 14-point change, and rural Republicans and Democrats show similar certainty to vote.[5][6]

Context. Commentary notes that rural voters still trust the GOP more on cost of living and healthcare, so the decline is contested rather than settled.[7][8]

Sources

8 sources: 8 not rated

  1. 1The Rural Shrug: How Tariffs and the Iran War Are ...moderndiplomacy.eu · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  2. 2Lara Trump Dismisses Midterm Polls, Says MAGA Voters Aren't Answeringiowa-news.com · not rated · cited for: context
  3. 3Lara Trump Says MAGA Voters Aren’t ‘Answering Pollsters’ When Confronted With Bad Numbers on Fox Newsmediaite.com · not rated · cited for: context
  4. 4Lara Trump Desperately Spins President's Polling ...sg.news.yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: context
  5. 5KFF/AP Rural Voters Surveykff.org · not rated · cited for: context
  6. 6Poll shows struggling Kentucky voters losing enthusiasm ...wuky.org · not rated · cited for: context
  7. 7Frustrated farmers could become a midterm problem for Republicansabc4.com · not rated · cited for: context
  8. 8Can the GOP convince rural voters to stick with them in ...washingtonexaminer.com · not rated · cited for: context

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