There was an 18 point shift in a state legislative contest in western Pennsylvania.

What we found

Supports. Sources report Dukes (D) beat Timko (R) by just 88 votes in the Aug. 18 special election for the 12th state House District in Butler County.[1][2]

Supports. Source 10 states Trump won this district by 18 points in 2024, so a near-tie result is roughly an 18-point shift toward Democrats.[2]

Supports. Sources describe the 12th District as a conservative seat in western Pennsylvania just north of Pittsburgh, with Trump carrying it 59-40 in 2024 per The Downballot.[3]

Supports. A Democratic strategist's transcript describes the same Butler County race as an 'around 18-point shift' in the Democratic direction.[4]

Context. The post's claim matches the passage's own phrasing and does not add a figure or scope beyond the Butler County contest.

Sources

4 sources: 4 not rated

1. 1Voter guide for 2026 Election Day in Western Pennsylvaniatriblive.com · not rated · cited for: supports
2. 2What's at stake in Pennsylvania's midterm electionsgoerie.com · not rated · cited for: supports
3. 3Democrats have one more chance for a special election flipthe-downballot.com · not rated · cited for: supports
4. 4Transcript: Trump’s Fury at Canada Is Already Backfiring Badly for Himnewrepublic.com · not rated · cited for: supports

Where this claim was made

Said in 1 published post

• The DSR Network · Aug 28, 2026“We're seeing things like an 18 point shift in a state legislative contest in western Pennsylvania”Post →

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