Polygraph

Murders have dropped to the lowest rate in 90 years.

Posted by The Dan Bongino Show, Checked

Polygraph verdictMixed
Sources
3 contradict2 support1 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
60%
The Dan Bongino ShowSep 16, 2026
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Video frame
61 claimsThe check →

The FBI's 2025 data supports that the murder rate fell to its lowest level on record (4.1 per 100,000, tied with 1955-56 and the lowest since 1900), but the sources tie the "90 years" figure to the record-largest violent-crime drop since 1936, not to the murder rate's low.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… Five times? Oh my gosh, that is insane. The dude went home. Oh man, Mr. Patel, is it true that you conducted a meeting without tying your left shoelace? The violent crime rates the lowest it is in American history. Murders have dropped to the lowest rate in 90 years. But let's talk about did you not tie your shoes, as photos? Folks, I'm sorry, I'm like if my eyes are watering, it's not because I'm crying, because I can't believe how stupid the people we elect sometimes in the US. Senate are. …
The Dan Bongino Show · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. The "lowest in 90 years" framing does not match the murder-rate record, which the sources place as the lowest since 1900 (about 125 years); the 90-year figure in sources refers to the largest violent-crime drop since 1936.[1][3][4]

Supports. The FBI's 2025 report, as covered by AP, shows the murder rate fell 18.1% to 4.1 per 100,000, the lowest level on record, tied with 1955 and 1956.[1][5]

Supports. The Council on Criminal Justice reports that in 2025 the homicide rate fell to 4.1 per 100,000, the lowest level recorded since at least 1900, and that 2026 first-half declines continued.[6]

Context. FactCheck.org rates Trump's related claims as misleading, noting the FBI data shows record one-year declines in violent and murder rates but that Trump overstated the historical comparisons such as the "125 years" figure.[2]

Sources

6 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 4 not rated

  1. 1US homicide rate hits 75-year low, FBI saysapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts, supports
  2. 2Trump's Misleading Crime Drop Claimsfactcheck.org · fact-checker · cited for: context
  3. 3From AI tools to alcohol drops: The unexpected forces driving America's crime declineaxios.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  4. 42025 FBI Crime Stats One Pager | Fact Sheetamericafirstpolicy.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  5. 5Map shows states with highest and lowest rates of violent ...yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: supports
  6. 6Trends in Homicide: What You Need to Know - Council on Criminal Justicecounciloncj.org · not rated · cited for: supports

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