Data indicates that robberies decrease by 7% to 27% when there is more light in the evening.
Posted by The Charlie Kirk Show, Checked
- Sources
- 4 support3 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 85%
The Charlie Kirk ShowAug 5, 2026
The 7% (daily average) and 27% (evening hour after DST) robbery declines match the published Doleac and Sanders findings in Brookings and Cornell, and WestEd and CBS repeat them, so the claim's range is supported; the claim is a faithful paraphrase of the post.
A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.
What was said
… So when you have it light later at night, there is data to indicate that robberies decrease, potentially as much as, like, 25%. So have you seen any of that data, and do you agree or disagree? I've seen the data. It's anywhere from 7% to 27%, so I'm definitely not going to refute that data. I don't want to have anyone fact check me. That's, that's data. However, this is basically going from November to February, and it's from the hours of 5 p.m. To 8 p.m., and it's a, it's a real trade off. …
The Charlie Kirk Show · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. Brookings reports that when DST begins, robbery rates for the entire day fall an average of 7 percent, with a 27 percent drop during the evening hour that gained extra sunlight.[1]
Supports. Cornell's primary report on the Sanders and Doleac analysis of NIBRS data for 2005-08 in 558 jurisdictions describes robberies as less common later at night and links the evening light shift to robbery risk.[2]
Supports. WestEd's study summary reports statistically significant robbery reductions of 7 percent daily and 27 percent in the hour after sunset, matching the claimed range.[4]
Supports. CBS13 reports the same Doleac and Sanders findings: robbery rates go down 7% on average and 27% in the evening hour gained through DST.[3]
Context. A 2026 peer-reviewed study finds a 28.8% drop in sunset robberies from an extra hour of daylight, consistent with the 27% figure, while an earlier working paper reports a 51% sunset-hour drop, a different estimate on a different basis.[5][6]
Context. The underlying robbery data cover 2005-2008 and represent averages across jurisdictions rather than any single street, which limits how the percentages apply locally.[2][7]
Sources
7 sources: 2 primary, 1 tier 2, 4 not rated
- 1Fighting crime with Daylight Saving Time - Brookings Institutionbrookings.edu · primary source · cited for: supports
- 2Fall back and watch out: Robbers thrive on standard timenews.cornell.edu · primary source · cited for: supports, context
- 3Getting Answers: How Time Change and Temperature Impact Crimecbsnews.com · tier 2 · cited for: supports
- 4Under the Cover of Darkness: How Ambient Light Influences ...wested.org · not rated · cited for: supports
- 5The role of ambient light in shaping public safety: Evidence from daylight saving timeonlinelibrary.wiley.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 6Under the Cover of Darkness: Using Daylight Saving Time to Mideas.repec.org · not rated · cited for: context
- 7TBOTECH Publishes Research Summary on What the November 1 Clock Change Does to Evening Safetycommercialappeal.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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