Polygraph

Nithya Raman is expected to be elected mayor of Los Angeles.

Posted by Real Time with Bill Maher, Checked

Polygraph verdictCan’t tell
Sources
7 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
50%
Real Time with Bill MaherOct 24, 2026
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70 claimsThe check →

The claim is a forecast about the Nov. 3 runoff, which had not yet been held as of the Oct. 24 post or the Nov. 2 check, so no source can confirm or refute it. Sources describe Raman as front-runner in some September and late-October polls, and the Oct.

A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… I mean, I would love to hear somebody say, you know, you are not the Democratic Party. You are free to do this, but you should take it somewhere else and be your own party. We're gonna have a DSA mayor here in Los Angeles. Nithya Raman looks like she's gonna be elected mayor, DSA mayor here. I mean, that's why I think it's so important we have some balance here, because otherwise who's gonna push back on this stuff if we just have more and more of this and no one pushing back? That's why I think it's so important. …
Real Time with Bill Maher · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Context. Polling was mixed: a September UC Berkeley IGS poll had Raman ahead of Bass by 11 points, while the Oct. 19-25 poll put both candidates at 40% with 19% undecided.[3][4]

Context. The New York Times (Oct. 27) described Raman as the front-runner and leading in polls, while Politico (Nov. 1) said she had a strong chance to defeat Bass, but these describe a race rather than an established outcome.[1][2]

Context. Election-day outcome was not yet known; sources published through Nov. 1 still describe a tight, toss-up contest.[5][6][7]

Sources

7 sources: 2 tier 2, 5 not rated

  1. 1She's Not LA's Mamdani. But She Might Still Become Mayor.nytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
  2. 2Nithya Raman, the accidental politician who could run Los Angelespolitico.com · tier 2 · cited for: context
  3. 3Karen Bass erases Nithya Raman's lead in fierce LA mayor racermb.reuters.com · not rated · cited for: context
  4. 4Karen Bass, Nithya Raman in dead heat in race for LA mayor ...nbclosangeles.com · not rated · cited for: context
  5. 5LA could be in for a new mayor. What Nithya Raman says she'd dojconline.com · not rated · cited for: context
  6. 6LA Mayoral Challenger Rides Anti-establishment Wave In Toss-up Racebarrons.com · not rated · cited for: context
  7. 7Nithya Raman is running for LA mayor. Is she really a democratic socialist?bostonglobe.com · not rated · cited for: context

Where this claim was made

Said in 1 published post

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