Opposition leader Gadi Asinat leads Benjamin Netanyahu 66% to 27% in election odds.
Posted by REAL AF with Andy Frisella, Checked
- Sources
- 5 contradict3 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
REAL AF with Andy FrisellaOct 28, 2026
The claim's figures (Gadi Asinat 66%, Netanyahu 27%) appear in no source. The closest record is prediction-market odds for PM after the election: Polymarket on 2026-10-27 had Eisenkot at 39% and Netanyahu at 36%, a close race with Netanyahu's share well above 27%.
Our two reads of who says this, and how, disagree, so it counts as the post's own claim.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What was said
… I saw this post that came out from a F post that Israel's prime minister claims, quote, "They are trying to steal the election from us," just six hours after the polls opened, accusing operatives from the Arab Rom Party of election interference. Meanwhile, opposition leader Gadi Asinat leads Netanyahu 66% to 27% in election odds, with early voter turnout reaching its highest level in 45 years. Um, it's not looking good, and there was some weird stuff that B posted out, like there was this post, ah, that looked like a nuclear bomb had been dropped, and he's like, you know, this is …
REAL AF with Andy Frisella · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Contradicts. Polymarket's 'Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?' market on 2026-10-27 showed Gadi Eizenkot at 39% and Benjamin Netanyahu at 36%, far from the claimed 66% to 27%.[4]
Contradicts. Exit polls and final counts reported by Reuters, AP and NYT show a deadlocked result with Netanyahu's bloc at 53 seats and Eisenkot's at 48, neither near a majority, which is inconsistent with a two-to-one odds lead for Eisenkot.[1][2][3][5]
Context. The name 'Gadi Asinat' does not appear in any source; the opposition leader in the sources is Gadi Eisenkot, and Netanyahu's odds are not reported at 27% in any source.[1][6][7]
Context. Kalshi's market on 2026-11-02 showed Eisenkot at 28% and Netanyahu at 18%, but this postdates the 2026-10-28 claim and is not used for the verdict.[8]
Sources
8 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 2 tier 2, 4 not rated
- 1Live 2026 Israel election resultsreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts, context
- 2The Latest: As votes are counted, no clear winner emerges in Israel's electionapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: contradicts
- 3Israel Election Live Updates: Exit Polls Show Strength of Opposition to Netanyahu but No Clear Winnernytimes.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
- 4Israel Election Prediction Markets & Live Odds 2026polymarket.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 5Israel election: Netanyahu-led bloc in slight lead with more than half of votes counteddw.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
- 6A quick guide to Israel's high-stakes election - NPRnpr.org · tier 2 · cited for: context
- 7Netanyahu's future hangs in the balance in a decisive election ...english.elpais.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 8Prime Minister of Israel after the 2026 election? Odds & Predictionskalshi.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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