Kalshi odds show Democrats have a 65% chance to take back the Senate.
Posted by Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica Tarlov, Checked
- Sources
- 1 contradict1 support2 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 50%
Raging Moderates with Scott Galloway and Jessica TarlovOct 27, 2026
… Trump is suing states over election rules, threatening election officials and offering $1 million for tipoffs that lead to voter fraud convictions. Despite these efforts, Kalshi odds show Democrats have a 65% chance to take back the Senate. But with seven toss-ups projected, both parties are relying on voter turnout. Will Democratic efforts be enough to deliver the “blue wave” many have predicted? …
As of 2026-10-27, the sources show Kalshi odds favoring Democrats but do not report a Senate-only figure of 65%. CNBC reported 63% for Democrats winning both chambers that day, and Kalshi's Senate market showed 68% two days later (Oct 29), so 65% falls inside a range of nearby readings that measure different things.
Minor detail. The sources confirm the claim; only a minor detail differs, such as a name's spelling, a title's wording or a rounding.
This claim is in the show notes, the publisher's own words. It counts against the post, once.
This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.
What we found
Contradicts. No source reports exactly 65% for Democrats taking the Senate on or near Oct 27; the closest same-day figure (63%) measures both chambers, not the Senate alone.[1]
Supports. CNBC (Oct 27) reported Kalshi gave Democrats a 63% chance of winning control of both the House and Senate, and described Democrats as roughly two-to-one favorites.[1]
Supports. Kalshi's Senate control market showed Democrats at 68% on Oct 29, close to the claimed 65%.[2]
Context. Later Kalshi readings rose to about 70% (Oct 31) and 71% (Nov 1), showing the Senate figure moved upward after the claim was posted.[3][4]
Sources
4 sources: 4 not rated
- 12026 midterms: Prediction markets favor Democratic ...cnbc.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts, supports
- 2Which party will win the U.S. Senate? 2026 Senate Control ...kalshi.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 3Prediction markets missed Brazil. U.S. midterms are the big test.yahoo.com · not rated · cited for: context
- 42026 Midterm Predictions: Polls vs. Prediction Marketsnews.kalshi.com · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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