Polygraph

Elon Musk spent between $100 million and $150 million in the Texas midterm race.

Posted by Deadline: White House, Checked

Polygraph verdictMixed
Sources
3 contradict1 support2 context
Said
1 time·
Confidence
60%
Deadline: White HouseOct 20, 2026
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43 claimsThe check →

The claim's range of $100M to $150M is only partly supported. Musk's disclosed contributions tied to the Texas Senate race were about $158M (via the Senate Leadership Fund, passed to Texas PAC), plus $10M to Lone Star Liberty PAC, which exceeds the $150M ceiling.

A detail. The sources confirm the gist; the verdict faults a detail such as a date, number or wording.

A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.

This claim is about the present, so it is judged as of the day it was checked.

What was said

… One, what is your sense of the stakes for Musk in the midterms? And two, I know you have a question that I'll let you ask after that for Alex. Well, Nicole, so far we think that Elon Musk has probably spent 100, 150 million dollars in that Texas race, and it has been nothing but money burned, in the sense that he's the largest, right now, the largest known contributor to the midterms. Most of that money has been focused on Texas. James Tallarico's numbers have not moved. …
Deadline: White House · · from the transcriptPost →

What we found

Contradicts. CNN and Texas Tribune report Musk contributed more than $150M, about $158M, that flowed to Texas PAC for the Paxton race, which is above the claimed upper bound of $150M.[3][4][5]

Supports. TPR reports Texas PAC had already spent more than $148M to boost Paxton and attack Talarico, which falls within the claimed $100M to $150M range if the measure is spending rather than contributions.[6]

Context. Reuters reports Musk gave $10M to Lone Star Liberty PAC supporting Paxton, and AP and Texas Tribune put the Senate Leadership Fund gift at $158M, so total Texas-directed money is higher than either figure alone.[1][2]

Context. The claim's figure depends on the measure used (contributions versus expenditures), and the claimant's own 'probably' estimate is not a source for the figure.

Sources

6 sources: 2 fact-checkers, 1 tier 2, 3 not rated

  1. 1AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Texas on Election Dayapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  2. 2Musk has spent $276 million on midterms to help Republicans retain control of Congressreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
  3. 3Musk contributed more than $150 million to bolster GOP in Texas Senate race, filings show | CNN Politicscnn.com · tier 2 · cited for: contradicts
  4. 4Elon Musk gave $158 million to Senate GOP group helping ...texastribune.org · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  5. 5How Elon Musk is bankrolling GOP’s hopes in Texas Senate raceabcnews.com · not rated · cited for: contradicts
  6. 6Democrats — and Elon Musk — continue to dominate midterm ...tpr.org · not rated · cited for: supports

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Said in 1 published post

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