In the 2020 election, a shift of 100,000 combined votes in specific states would have resulted in a Donald Trump victory.
Posted by Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar, Checked
- Sources
- 2 support4 context
- Said
- 1 time·
- Confidence
- 60%
Breaking Points with Krystal and SaagarOct 27, 2026
The sources show that a shift of roughly 43,000 votes in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would have produced a 269-269 tie that the House would likely have decided for Trump, and about 65,000 including Nebraska's 2nd District would have given him 270 outright.
A guest makes this claim. Listeners heard it, so it counts against the post, and on the guest's own record.
What was said
… As you just said, if the election victory margin continues to trend in the direction now, if it gets close, that is going to be a very different story. I'm not going to lie. Whenever it comes to that, like, you will have them, and again, that just really highlights the specter of 2020, where, because it was very close 100,000 votes a different direction, Trump wins pretty easily in a bunch of these different states. That just and that's 100,000 combined, by the way, just to make clear how close that election actually was that is where you could zoom in and, against, convince people, I think, that something went wrong, or to pursue some sort of a lawsuit. But I've looked at a lot of these, you know, alleged things that they it quote try to do. …
Breaking Points with Krystal and Saagar · · from the transcriptPost →What we found
Supports. CFR calculates that moving 42,921 votes across Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin would have tied the Electoral College at 269 and sent the election to the House, which it says would undoubtedly have chosen Trump.[4]
Supports. The LA Times reports that flipping Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin (combined margins of about 43,000 votes) would have produced a 269-269 tie, a likely Trump victory via the House.[5]
Supports. CFR adds that Trump would have won the Electoral College outright had he also picked up Nebraska's 2nd District, which Biden won by 22,091 votes, so the combined total needed for an outright win is about 65,000.[4]
Context. Actual 2020 margins were 10,457 in Arizona, 11,779 in Georgia, 20,682 in Wisconsin and 154,188 in Michigan, so the 100,000 figure is a shift spread across states rather than a single state's margin.[1][6]
Context. Sources that address the 2020 margins in Arizona and Wisconsin, including a Maricopa review and Wisconsin fact-checks, confirm that Biden's leads were not reversed by any recount or review, so the hypothetical is counterfactual.[2][3]
Sources
6 sources: 3 fact-checkers, 3 not rated
- 1Behind the Battleground Statesreuters.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 2Trump's drumbeat of lies about the 2020 election keeps getting louder. Here are the factsapnews.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 39 key fact-checks about the 2020 presidential election in ...politifact.com · fact-checker · cited for: context
- 4The 2020 Election by the Numberscfr.org · not rated · cited for: supports
- 5Could Trump have produced a different election outcome?latimes.com · not rated · cited for: supports
- 62020 United States elections - Wikipediaen.wikipedia.org · not rated · cited for: context
Where this claim was made
Said in 1 published post
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